经理任期、声誉效应与过度投资*——U型理论与经验证据

声誉效应可以缓解代理冲突并抑制过度投资,但其效果却随任期期限临近而衰退。本文理论分析了企业过度投资与经理任期之间的U型关系。以中国A股上市公司为样本,运用门限自回归实证模型,进行实证分析。本文研究发现：作为声誉效应的代理变量,经理任期对过度投资的影响呈U型。在经理任期达到特定门限值42个月之前,经理任期与过度投资呈负相关关系。在门限值之后,声誉效应逐渐失去作用,随着经理任期的增加,过度投资程度提高。     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

扁平证券市场线和融资限制——中国股票市场的实证检验

资本资产定价模型（CAPM)在国际金融市场的实证检验结果往往呈现扁平证券市场线现象。一些学者认为融资限制是该现象的产生原因。本文旨在研究扁平证券市场线现象是否存在于中国股市,同时分析融资限制对中国股市证券市场线的影响。本文采用投资组合分析法对A股主板市场进行实证检验。本文研究发现：（1)扁平的证券市场线现象同样存在于中国股票市场中;（2)在中国股票市场中,融资限制与证券市场线的斜率呈负相关,与截距呈正相关,这符合融资限制理论;（3)以上两点发现同样存在于多因子定价模型中,这表明本文研究结果具有稳健性。       

Can Labor Emigration Affect the Education of Girls? Evidence from Tajikistan

This study examines how large-scale, predominantly male emigration affects the education of girls staying in Tajikistan, the poorest post-Soviet state and one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. Using data from a three-wave household panel survey conducted in 2007, 2009, and 2011, this study finds that the net effect of migration on girls’ schooling turns from positive to negative with girls’ age. These results lend support to various conceptual channels through which the emigration of household members may affect girls’ education, including the relaxation of budget constraints, a change of the household head, and an increase in household work. At the practical level, the results imply that migration can be detrimental to women’s empowerment and cast doubt on whether emigration is an appropriate long-term development strategy for Tajikistan.     

Auditing Goodwill in the Post‐Amortization Era: Challenges for Auditors

The elimination of goodwill amortization in 2001 brought about significant change in how companies are required to account for goodwill. This change in accounting also brought with it new challenges for auditors, namely evaluating the reasonableness of management's assumptions related to goodwill valuation. In addition to introducing technical challenges, this task is particularly difficult given the misalignment in incentives it creates between managers who likely prefer to avoid recording an impairment and auditors who seek to minimize the bias in management's impairment testing. This study focuses on the consequences of the misaligned incentives that auditors face under the current goodwill assessment process. We find that the decision to record a goodwill impairment is associated with an increase in the probability of auditor dismissal. Consistent with the presence of significant friction with clients, our results also indicate that the likelihood of auditor dismissals is negatively related to the favorability of the impairment decision. Furthermore, we find that companies impairing goodwill prior to dismissing auditors subsequently employ auditors that are, on average, more favorable to clients in their impairment decisions.     

香港工业政策变迁的理论分析——兼论对珠江三角洲地区工业政策转变的启示

目前,世界经济正处于后工业经济向知识经济转型的重要时期。在这一关键时期,如何最大程度地发挥工业在国民经济中的作用,对各国的经济发展与产业转型都具有决定性的影响,而工业经济的发展在很大程度上取决于一国工业政策的方向和内容。本文以20世纪80年代以来香港工业政策的变迁为例,探讨了工业政策在香港经济转型中的静态和动态影响,并通过对香港工业政策变迁经验的探讨,对我国珠江三角洲地区工业政策的未来发展方向和重心提出自己的几点看法。     

“诺斯悖论”视野下的农民合作

在理解农民合作的内在机理中,政府的角色是不可或缺的,但政府的介入往往形成一个"悖论"。通过分析新中国成立以来农民的合作历史,展示了政府进退对农民合作的影响。结合目前农民合作的现状,分析由于政府缺位,制度资源供给不足,农民合作陷入困境。因此,由于农民自组织资源的局限性,政府介入农民合作是必要的,但要注意介入的尺度,要在公共决策与私人决策之间保持平衡。     

外部融资、技术创新研发与企业成长--银行信贷与技术研发交互作用的经验研究

在当前经济转型升级的大背景下,要想保持经济长期可持续的增长,必然要求微观企业保持良好的成长态势和较高水平的生产效率。本文利用BEEPS的中国企业调查微观数据,考察了外部融资约束、银行信贷和技术研发影响企业绩效和企业成长的作用机制。研究表明：外部融资约束对企业生产效率有显著负面影响,企业技术研发对生产效率有显著的促进作用,外部融资约束通过技术研发投入途径对企业生产效率产生抑制效应;银行信贷对于企业生产效率有直接的负面影响,只有将其投入到技术研发活动中才会发挥促进企业成长的作用。     

What about people in cycle network planning? applying participative multicriteria GIS analysis in the case of the Athens metropolitan cycle network

The bicycle is gaining ground as an inexpensive, fast, healthy, and enjoyable mode of transport, but the development of cycle infrastructures appears to be a necessary prerequisite for supporting further growth in cycling rates. Thus far, few studies have developed comprehensive methodologies for the prioritisation of cycling infrastructure investments, and the role of end users has been underestimated in this process. The unique relationship that cyclists develop with the bicycle itself, their co-cyclists, bicycle facilities, and the urban environment as a result of sensory, kinaesthetic, symbolic, or even political reasons can assist in designing cycle facilities that are more efficient and closer to fulfilling the needs and desires of users. We propose a comprehensive four-step methodology for cycle network planning, which both accounts for the city structure and the zones in which higher cycling demand is possible and uses participative multicriteria GIS processes to incorporate cyclists’ views with regard to choosing the cycle network segments. Our case study is Athens, Greece, where cycling facilities are few and heavily fragmented, although cycling demand has recently grown. This methodology may be useful for cities attempting to introduce and prioritise cycling infrastructures because it focuses on determining where cyclists would prefer to cycle to make such investments more successful in attracting users.     

Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.